\(P[\text{drive failure}]\)

in which bayes' theorem makes an appearance

i want to keep my data for my entire life. modern hardware should be advanced enough to support this, but the real world invariably rears its ugly head whenever discussions of "forever" come up, anywhere. nothing is forever. \(P[\text{the world ends tomorrow}] > 0\), after all. my entire life (and possibly the lives of another generation or two) should be sufficient for my purposes.

note: this is a redone version of an analysis that i did for work a while back. i was operating ~200 TB of networked storage at the time for both ml use (storing models) and government-inspected record-keeping, hence the desire to be able to prove some measure of reliablility. unfortunately i left before i could properly implement any of it. :(

todo background

P_doom

todo how drives fail

todo where is the data on this?

todo read errors

todo whole-disk failure

todo architecture

todo conclusions